(For example, Dworshak and Milner are nested within the larger Ice Harbor sub-basin.). The PRISM data for Canada were interpolated to 30 arc-second resolution data from a 2.5 arc-minute (approximately 4km) product and were statistically adjusted to remove the bias associated with the different time period (19611990 means for the 4km product). A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). The BCSD runs are transient runs from 1950 to 2098 or 1950 to 2099 (depending on the GCM). By closing this message, you are consenting to our use of cookies. The changes in the importance of snow in some areas of the United States are particularly striking. Elsner MM, et al. Flooding in these basins is sensitive to both warming (which raises snow lines and effectively enlarges the contributing basin area during most flood events) and increasing winter precipitation. Until recently, a climate-change induced shift in water supply was the story of the Columbia River Basin's future. Post-processing of the primary VIC model output (see Table 2) was carried out to produce a number of specific products discussed in the following sections. These results support the hypothesis that widespread increases in winter landslide risks and sediment transport in rivers are likely to accompany increased winter precipitation and loss of interannual snowpack in mountain watersheds. #! O The macroscale hydrologic model used in the CBCCSP is the VIC model (Cherkauer & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Liang, Lettenmaier, Wood, & Burges, Citation1994) implemented at 1/16 degree resolution. (2000). Detailed water balance summaries and streamflow data for up to 300 river locations to be specified by WDOE and other stakeholders in the region. The first nine months of the dataset were used for hydrologic model spin-up, resulting in 91 water years (OctoberSeptember) of usable historical data from the hydrologic model simulations. Register a free Taylor & Francis Online account today to boost your research and gain these benefits: An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, Methods, and Summary of Key Results, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences , University of Notre Dame , Notre Dame , Indiana , USA, Technical Service Center 86-68210, US Bureau of Reclamation , Denver , Colorado , USA, Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, and Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change, Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture of the United States, Climate Change and Future Wildfire in the Western United States: An Ecological Approach to Nonstationarity, Crossscale interactions dictate regional lake carbon flux and productivity response to future climate, Drought Conditions Maximize the Impact of High-Frequency Flow Variations on Thermal Regimes and Biogeochemical Function in the Hyporheic Zone, Fine-scale environmental DNA sampling reveals climate-mediated interactions between native and invasive trout species, Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia, Geomorphological principles for phased sediment management, How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. The top two panels show the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (left) and R 2 (right) for the calibration period, while the two lower panels show NSE (left) and R 2 (right) for the validation period. Nous avons implment une rsolution latitudelongitude calibre 1/16 de degr dans le modle capacit d'infiltration variable (VIC) et avons appliqu dans le modle bassin du fleuve Columbia pour produire des simulations historiques et 77 projections hydrologiques futures correspondant trois mthodes de rduction dchelle statistique et trois priodes futures (les dcennies 2020, 2040 et 2080). Basin topographic map and smoothed basin boundary at 1/16 degree resolution. In other words, dry areas east of the Cascade Range have less base-flow potential to lose with increasing evapotranspiration and loss of summer precipitation because the soil moisture is already at very low levels in late summer. Because both these effects increase flood risk in the simulations, the effects are unusually large in these basins (Fig. After fitting three-parameter generalized extreme value probability distributions to the annual peak flow data, the daily 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (under natural flow conditions) are estimated for both historical and future periods. Final calibration results for the model are shown in Fig. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Right panel: Historical estimates of summer AET (upper right) compared with percentage changes for the same CD scenarios. Hamlet, and S.-Y. These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. Read on for information on our current project. Size, however, is only one aspect of what makes the river particularly unique. Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Bias adjustment was also used in preparing the specific reservoir modelling support products discussed below. However, our goal in this case was not to reduce the range of uncertainty by selecting a smaller group of GCMs. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. Instead, these areas respond primarily to projected changes in precipitation until late in the twenty-first century, and in fact some of these areas show modest increases in SWE (about +5%) until the middle of the twenty-first century under the combined effects of warming and increasing cool season precipitation. hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% A 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. Either naturalized or modified flows (Crook, Citation1993) are used for bias correction of data provided in the site-specific products discussed below, with naturalized data taking precedence if available. To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below: Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content? The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate thats different from 50 years ago. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for the Tri-Cities, Walla Walla, Hermiston, and surrounding areas in effect from 04:00 to 22:00 Sunday. 135 0 obj <>stream Key products from the study include detailed summary data for about 300 river sites in the PNW and monthly GIS products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. (1 April SWE and SWE2PR values were calculated using the CD VIC scenarios.). The PET increases over most of the PNW in summer as a result of rising temperatures; however, AET is reduced in all but a few areas of the domain because AET is water limited and summer precipitation decreases in the simulations. This choice was imposed by WDOE. The results were only slightly better than those achieved in the large-scale calibration. Climate Adaptation. Oregon Water Resources Department. Dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. Contact Carri Hessman Program Manager (208) 378-5106 chessman@usbr.gov Bureau of Reclamation Broad changes in shallow groundwater (e.g., localized contributions to streamflow from smaller unconfined aquifers), however, are likely well captured by the VIC model based on a strong correlation between VIC-simulated base flows and observations in many basins examined by Wenger et al. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. Des accroissements gnraliss simuls de la rhumidification du sol en automne et en hiver dans les secteurs o l'accumulation de neige en hiver est importante (sous le climat actuel) appuient les hypothses de risque accru de glissement de terrain et de transport de sdiments durant l'hiver dans le futur. 0 However, some areas west of the Cascade Range and in the northern Rockies show increasing AET. We use cookies to improve your website experience. Gridded databases providing full GIS coverage of important hydrometeorological variables in support of a wide range of research applications, including ecosystem research. Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. Agencies at the state and local levels were similarly engaged, two notable examples in the PNW being King County, Washington (Casola et al., Citation2005), and the WDOE, which manages (among many other water-related issues) the state's water resources and water quality permitting programs. Extreme event statistics are calculated directly from the raw (i.e., not bias-adjusted) daily streamflows at each streamflow site, applying methods developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2007) and Mantua et al. Fig. .. slide 2 of 5. Les plus fortes augmentations dans les crues sont dans les bassins de pluie et neige mles dont les tempratures actuelles au milieu de l'hiver sont quelques degrs du point de conglation. 11 Changes in 7Q10 for 297 river locations expressed as a ratio of 7Q10 for the future period to 7Q10 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods, by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The WDOE was also directed to incorporate climate change explicitly in these comprehensive assessment efforts. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. 5. A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate, A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain, Constructing retrospective gridded daily precipitation and temperature datasets for the conterminous United States, Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State, Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections, The role of transboundary agreements in the Columbia River basin: An integrated assessment in the context of historic development, climate, and evolving water policy, Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Funding was received by WSU to carry out research quantifying crop water demand, water resources system performance, and economic impacts under current climate conditions and a range of future climate scenarios. The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world. Using the VIC model, the study has projected impacts for the Great Busin and the Columbia River, Missouri River, and Colorado River basins, and assessment of impacts in California is underway at the time of writing. 6). Act relating to state agency climate leadership, S. 5560, 61st Legislature (WA 2009). 2860, 59th Legislature (WA 2006). Site specific data [Data]. The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. The model shows reasonably good calibration statistics for the majority of the sites, and the calibration is robust (showing equally good or better statistics in the validation period when compared with the calibration period). Each of these methods has its specific advantages and limitations (as discussed in detail in Hamlet et al., 2010a); however, the HD method combines several important strengths of the CD and BCSD methods and was developed specifically to support the prediction of daily hydrologic extremes (Hamlet et al., 2010a). 1990 level modified streamflow 19281989. 4 Flow chart illustrating the post-processing steps used to produce the various hydrologic products served on the study website. Source: Bonneville Power Administration. The CBCCSP (and extensions over the west) has greatly reduced the costs of these types of studies by supplying (at essentially no cost) a wide range of high-quality hydrologic scenarios as a foundation for further work. Yorgey, G. G., Rajagopalan, K., Chinnayakanahalli, K., Brady, M., Barber, M. E., Nelson, R., Stockle, C. S., Kruger, C. E., Dinesh, S., Malek, K., Yoder, J., & Adam, J. C. (2011). The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. Blue traces show monthly averages for historical conditions; the pink bands show the range of projected change associated with each scenario and future time period; the red lines show the average of the future ensemble. Right panel: Historical and projected future watershed classification (rain-dominant, transitional (mixed-rain-and-snow), snow-dominant) for 10-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds, based on the long-term mean of the SWE2PR for each watershed. These hydrologic studies support detailed assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on irrigation and important crops in WA (Yorgey et al., Citation2011), which in turn will inform decisions regarding best use of funding to improve water supply benefits in WA under climate change. 8) and warmer and drier summers (which increase PET) (Fig. West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin, Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling. The same basic effects are seen in the SWE2PR maps, where snowmelt remains dominant in the northern tip of the CRB even at the end of the twenty-first century, whereas in the US portions of the domain there are widespread transformations of mixed-rain-and-snow river basins to rain-dominant basins and snowmelt-dominant basins to mixed-rain-and-snow basins. Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century, Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments, Uncertainties in hydrologic and climate change impact analyses in headwater basins of British Columbia. Many river locations that were submitted for consideration were at gauging locations supported by the USGS and ECAN, or at locations associated with important water resources monitoring needs (e.g., checkpoints for flood control, water supply, or environmental flows) or infrastructure (e.g., dams and diversion points). Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate change Date: February 10, 2021 Source: Oregon State University Summary: The Columbia River basin will see an increase. We should note that glaciers and deep groundwater (e.g., contributions to streamflow from large confined aquifers) are not simulated by the VIC model, and impacts in areas profoundly influenced by these hydrologic features may not be well characterized in the simulations (Wenger et al., Citation2010). Highs in the lower to mid 40s. In much of the CRB, however, summer AET is water limited (i.e., there is abundant surface energy to evaporate whatever water is available), and changes in AET are dominated by decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios, which effectively decreases summer AET in most cases. Topographic corrections for precipitation and temperature are carried out by rescaling the data by a fixed factor for each calendar month so that the mean values from 1971 to 2000 match the PRISM climatology for the same period. The scope of work for the project called for hydrologic modellers at CIG to produce the following results: A suite of up-to-date hydrologic projections for the entire CRB (including portions of the basin in Canada) based on the CMIP3/AR4 (Meehl et al., Citation2007) GCM projections. Primary support for the project was provided by WDOE, with additional major support provided by the BPA, NWPCC, BCME, OWRD, and CTED via the 2009 WACCIA (http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml) (Miles et al., Citation2010). Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Additional streamflow sites were routed from the primary VIC data, and water temperature simulations for a number of additional sites were based on temperature projections from the study. Fig. Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. Three VIC model calibration parameters described above were varied in the optimization process, and six error metrics were used to define the objective function: squared correlation coefficient (R 2), NSE, the NSE of log-transformed data, annual volume error, mean hydrograph peak difference, RMSE, and number of sign changes in the simulated streamflow errors. In addition to creating these datasets, the RMJOC agencies worked together to adopt a set of methods for incorporating these data into those longer-term planning activities. This is a good example of the use of the study data to support relatively fine-scale planning needs. Table 1 summarizes the 77 future meteorological forcing datasets that were prepared for the study. Changes in the 1 April snowpack have been shown to depend strongly on winter temperature regimes (Hamlet, Mote, Clark, & Lettenmaier, Citation2005; Mote, Citation2006; Mote et al., Citation2005). The Climate Resilience Program helps communities in the Basin become more climate resilient by supporting large-scale, multi-year, shovel-ready climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience projects that address sources of climate change or manage the risks of climate change impacts. They found that the vast majority of locations across the Columbia River Basin are expected to experience increases in maximum streamflow magnitudes in the future.

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